A different approach to betting football accumulators

We all like a flutter on the football and one of the most popular bets is the footy accumulator.

Unfortunately, winning on accumulator proves elusive because the more selections chosen the harder it is to win. In addition, the bookmaker’s profit margin is compounded with each leg giving a huge edge in favour of the bookie.

Take the example of backing ten ‘good things’ – the teams at the shortest odds on the coupon. The accumulator may pay about 12/1 which is a nice profit when the bet comes in. But in reality, these ‘certainties’ will only land together once or twice a season leaving the bookie laughing all the way to the bank.

However, there is a way for accumulator punters to gain the upper hand and that is by exploiting the value in promotions like Acca Insurance, an offer that refunds losing stakes if one leg of the bet loses and the others win.

You’ll have heard the saying, “there’s always one that lets you down”, well the saying holds true according to statistics. Fivefold accumulators with short priced selections will have four winners more than often than five and also more often than three winners or less. Acca insurance refunds are usually given as free bets which can be turned into cash using matched betting and with such a high proportion of refunds, betting suitable accumulators will turn a profit.

Matched betting websites have a number of strategies to profit from accumulators and have developed tools to find the best bets to place in order to benefit from the edge that refunds provide. Access to the services is via subscription so to ensure the service is right for you, it’s wise to compare matched betting tools before making a financial commitment.

The tools calculate the expected profit from an accumulator by comparing the bookmaker’s odds with betting exchange odds. Depending on your preferred strategy, you can lay off each leg of the accumulator to either lock in a profit by leveraging the value of the refund or taking a small loss on each acca until hitting the refund. Alternatively, you can let the accumulator run and trust in the statistical edge to make a profit over time.

Matched bettors typically expect to make 20% return on investment from the bookmaker stakes over the course of the season. It’s an excellent return from football betting, although the figure can be more or less due the vagaries of football and changes in odds.

Some bookmakers restrict which competitions qualify for refunds but the top European Leagues are usually included with the likes of La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 ideal for finding suitable selections due the dominance of Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atletico, Bayern Munich, Dortmund, Juventus and PSG in their respective divisions.

Acca finding tools are programmed with the terms and conditions of each offer so they can be relied upon to produce bets that qualify for refunds. Selections are generated based on the comparative odds between bookmaker and exchange. This leaves no room for sentimental choices which is a good thing when it comes to betting on football.

1 Comment

  1. I’ve heard a bit about this, going to give it a try

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